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ANC to win election, likely to come in below 60%

Supporters of South Africa's President Jacob Zuma's ruling African National Congress (ANC) cheer during their party's final election rally in Soweto, May 4, 2014. South Africa goes to the polls on Wednesday in elections which are expected to keep the ANC in power. REUTERS/Mike Hutchings (SOUTH AFRICA - Tags: POLITICS ELECTIONS)

The governing ANC will win the election but with less support than it had in 2014, News24’s analysis of real-time election results shows.

The party is set to come in below 60%. It secured 62.15% of support in 2014.

According to News24’s statistical analysis, based on available and representative results:

·         The ANC will win a majority of 50% plus one needed to form a government.

·         Its majority will however be reduced from 2014.

·         It is likely to come in under 60%.

·         Election modelling shows the ANC’s likely range to be between 56% and 59%.

News24’s election analyst Dawie Scholtz has identified two main drivers of the ANC’s weaker performance: less support among black voters and lower national voter turnout.

“Lower black voter support is a big problem for the ANC. That is shown by our numbers in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. In 2014, the ANC secured 80% of black voters, but it seems like this year they will end up on 75%.

“This is even more pronounced in KwaZulu-Natal where in the southern parts of the province, their share of black voter support dropped from 85% to 72%. In the northern part of the province, IFP heartland, it dropped from 30% to 25%,”Scholtz said.

News24’s preliminary numbers also show that the ANC hasn’t been able to turn out as many voters compared to 2014. Scholtz said: “The ANC’s turnout seems to be between 62%, 63%. In 2014 it was between 69% and 70%.”

This does not compare well to DA-dominated suburban voting districts where voter turnout reached up to 80%.

“There are some important and big traditional ANC voting districts that still need to come in, including Soweto and areas in eTthekwini, such as Umlazi.” News24Projects

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