The governing ANC will win the election but with less support than it had in 2014, News24’s analysis of real-time election results shows.
The party is set to come in below 60%. It secured 62.15% of support in 2014.
According to News24’s statistical analysis, based on available and representative results:
· The ANC will win a majority of 50% plus one needed to form a government.
· Its majority will however be reduced from 2014.
· It is likely to come in under 60%.
· Election modelling shows the ANC’s likely range to be between 56% and 59%.
News24’s election analyst Dawie Scholtz has identified two main drivers of the ANC’s weaker performance: less support among black voters and lower national voter turnout.
“Lower black voter support is a big problem for the ANC. That is shown by our numbers in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. In 2014, the ANC secured 80% of black voters, but it seems like this year they will end up on 75%.
“This is even more pronounced in KwaZulu-Natal where in the southern parts of the province, their share of black voter support dropped from 85% to 72%. In the northern part of the province, IFP heartland, it dropped from 30% to 25%,”Scholtz said.
News24’s preliminary numbers also show that the ANC hasn’t been able to turn out as many voters compared to 2014. Scholtz said: “The ANC’s turnout seems to be between 62%, 63%. In 2014 it was between 69% and 70%.”
This does not compare well to DA-dominated suburban voting districts where voter turnout reached up to 80%.
“There are some important and big traditional ANC voting districts that still need to come in, including Soweto and areas in eTthekwini, such as Umlazi.” News24Projects