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SA Elections: Why ANC could get below 55% of votes

The latest poll by the Institute for Race Relations says the party could lose its majority in Gauteng and also, surprisingly, in KwaZulu-Natal

The final election poll conducted by the Institute for Race Relations (IRR) indicates that the ANC could get below 55% and lose its majority in Gauteng and its stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal.

This would depend on the last four days, turnout, and taking into account the margin of error, the IRR said.

The latest poll was conducted between April 27 and May 4.

Last week, the poll showed that on the national ballot, the ANC had lost its majority dropping to 49.5%, down 5.2 percentage points from the IRR’s previous poll in February.

On a 70% turnout model, a scenario considered plausible for this week’s election, the ANC polled at 53%, while the DA was 24% —an increase from the 22.23% it received in 2014. The EFF would increase to 14% from the 6.35% it received at the last national election.

Wednesday’s election is touted as the most contested since 1994 with the main battleground expected to be Gauteng where, if ANC is brought below 50%, a coalition government or a minority government will have control.

This is seen to be the most fluid national election to date, in particular with regards to the ANC and EFF, who have traded support one way or another.

The poll showed the EFF was up significantly relative to 2014, with the IRR saying this would set up an interesting dynamic between the party and the ANC over the next five years.

It appeared Gauteng would be the first test, it said.

According to the poll, Gauteng is set to be hung, barring a last-minute surge from the ANC.

On a turnout model of 71.1%, the ANC in Gauteng would get 41% and the DA 33%.

A shocking result from the IRR poll was the ANC losing its majority support in KwaZulu-Natal, its biggest province and stronghold, especially under former president Jacob Zuma.

The IRR said KwaZulu-Natal could be hung, depending on a range of factors, including a last-minute ANC surge, turnout and taking into account the margin of error.

On a 71.7% turnout model, the ANC only received 48%, according to the poll. Business Day

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